Integrity requirements are intensifying in the voluntary carbon market

The year 2025 continues the trend observed in recent years: the voluntary carbon market is moving toward greater integrity. Whether regarding projects, retirements, investments, or long term contracts, integrity is strengthening across all dimensions. This documented evolution is encouraging for a market whose long term viability depends on buyers’ confidence in the credibility of carbon credits.

The latter is based on two inseparable dimensions:

– Impact integrity: assessing whether projects genuinely reduce or avoid emissions relative to a robust baseline scenario.

– Implementation integrity: ensuring environmental and social safeguards, as well as broader contributions to sustainable development.

This transition, however, brings structural shifts that actors must navigate. In its latest report on the state of integrity of the VCM , MSCI Carbon Markets provides an in depth assessment from which several key insights emerge.

Dans son rapport, MSCI salue une progression de l’intégrité du marché sur deux aspects.

1. The integrity of new projects entering the market is increasing significantly

MSCI notes a marked improvement in the quality of new projects. Among projects currently under development, 37% are rated between AAA and A, compared with only 10% among projects already available on the market. When including BBB rated projects, the share of high quality new projects rises to 77%, compared with 26% across the existing market.

MSCI attributes this increase in integrity to several factors. First, there has been a shift in the distribution of new projects, with a rise in higher-quality project types, such as nature-based solutions (NBS). In addition, MSCI notes changes in project design that improve their quality, such as new reforestation projects (ARR), where more than half now include native species in their development, thereby improving the climate resilience of the projects. New clean cookstove projects are also seeing a marked improvement in their integrity due to greater methodological rigor. New projects incorporate more conservative values for their fNRB , which can be explained in particular by the arrival of new methodologies such as Verra’s VM0047 and VM0050, which reinforce calculation requirements. In order to ensure the highest standards of integrity, Removall is gradually transitioning its cookstove projects to the latest methodologies, including VM0050.

The article also highlights the major contribution to market integrity made by structural initiatives such as the Core Carbon Principles (CCPs) of the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) and the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA).

The ICVCM, an independent initiative bringing together more than 250 organizations, aims to strengthen market integrity by evaluating the standards and robustness of the methodologies used by these standards. To date, several methodologies proposed by recognized standards such as Verra and Gold Standard, particularly in the renewable energy sector, have been deemed non-compliant with CCP requirements. The CCPs are based on ten criteria covering governance, sustainable development, and the quality of emissions reductions. Among these, additionality plays a central role in the assessment.

For its part, CORSIA, the carbon offset mechanism led by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), will require airlines to purchase carbon credits to offset emissions growth above 85% of their 2019 levels starting in January 2028. By excluding renewable energy projects larger than 15 MW and certain improved cookstove methodologies, CORSIA also contributes to raising the quality requirements for projects wishing to be eligible. The effect of these two frameworks is already visible in the market: available and compliant projects are of significantly higher average quality than the market as a whole. MSCI also points out that no CCP-aligned project assessed to date has received the lowest rating, CCC.

2. Withdrawals and offtakes on the market are increasingly directed towards high-quality projects

In line with Removall’s observations among its clients’ requests, the report emphasizes that buyers are increasingly turning to high-quality credits. Withdrawal trends observed in the first half of 2025 show a consolidation in the share of credits from projects rated BBB or higher. This has stabilized at around 30%, which is higher than the average for the previous four years and the low of 18% recorded in 2020. Conversely, the proportion of withdrawals associated with a CCC rating was only 11%, its lowest level since 2019 and less than half of what was observed in 2022.

This increase in quality is also evident in offtakes, which benefit directly from the growing integrity of projects under development, as mentioned in the previous section. Together, these trends are an encouraging sign for future demand: they show that a growing number of players believe it is possible to lend credibility to their carbon contribution efforts by favoring credits from high-quality projects.

This dual increase in integrity, which is evident in both projects and procurement, is causing tensions that are reshaping the market in several ways.

1. The current level of supply of high-quality credits on the market raises questions about its ability to meet future demand, highlighting the importance of securing purchases through multi-year agreements from the project design phase onwards.

In the first half of 2025, long-term purchase agreements (offtake agreements) multiplied. Usually reserved for technological solutions, the number of off-takes for nature-based projects has more than doubled over the last twelve months, rising from 22 to 56. This trend highlights the challenge of securing access to high-quality credits. The scenario of an undersized supply is made more plausible with the publication of the latest draft of the SBTi’s Corporate Net Zero Standard, which is expected to require large companies subscribing to the initiative to finance emissions sequestration activities from 2035 onwards. With several offtakes already secured on behalf of its clients, Removall has solid expertise in this field, enabling it to provide the best possible support to companies wishing to commit to such an approach.

2. The prices of credits from high-quality projects are on the rise

This is the main consequence of the market’s increased integrity: high-quality credits are selling at increasingly high prices. Spot prices for projects rated BBB or higher are now above $7 on average across all categories, compared with $5 a year ago (November 2024). By comparison, spot prices for projects rated below BBB have never been lower, at less than $2 across all categories. This rise in prices can be explained primarily by the increase in developers’ costs, due to more demanding updated methodologies. The rise of market initiatives, such as the ICVCM’s CCPs, CORSIA, and the expected arrival of credits from Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, all aimed at strengthening the quality of compatible projects, is also contributing to the trend. Finally, the rise in prices is accentuated by the growing desire of companies to secure their future supplies. This strategy reduces the volume of credits available on the market, putting additional pressure on current prices and potentially leading to temporary shortages for certain types of credits. However, MSCI’s analysis suggests that prices are likely to continue to rise in the coming years.

As the report explains, market prices are currently being driven down by the large number of credits issued under older methodologies. When the vintages of these credits become too old to be used under carbon contribution standards such as ISO14068 or SBTi, the market is likely to see a rise in prices, benefiting projects that use the most recent methodologies. Aware of this situation, Removall draws on its database, built up over many years, to enable its clients to secure their future contributions now at the best market prices.

3. With the increase in the share of offtakes in companies’ carbon credit portfolios, their risk of delivery default is increasing, particularly for technological solutions.

As some technologies are still in the early stages of deployment (TRL 3-6+) , such as Direct Air Carbon Capture and Sequestration (DACCS), delays in project implementation may occur. The risk is also present for NBS projects whose development is directly affected by the effects of climate change. To mitigate the delivery risk, Removall relies on its quality procedures to select its suppliers and invest in its own projects. The work carried out by Removall’s teams includes reputational analyses of partner developers, risk analyses for projects, financing feasibility studies for projects in which it invests, and the use of insurance to cover the risk of delivery to the customer.

The VCM has reinforced its shift towards integrity with initiatives such as the ICVCM and CORSIA CCPs leading the way.

Projects under development/coming to market are demonstrating increasing integrity, which is reflected in higher MSCI ratings.

The growing integrity of the carbon market represents an opportunity for companies that, by mastering market best practices, can now build credible carbon contributions with greater peace of mind.

Integrity is driving market changes that are encouraging companies to position themselves now to secure their supply of high-quality credits at competitive prices.

Removall, as an integrated company that is both an investor, developer, certifier, and intermediary, is in an excellent position to assist and draw conclusions from developments in the VCM. It is committed to putting its ICROA-recognized expertise at the service of those who wish to engage in a serious carbon contribution approach.

Source : https://www.msci.com/research-and-insights/paper/2025-state-of-integrity-in-the-global-carbon-credit-market

(1) 2025 State of Integrity in the Global Carbon Credit Market MSCI Carbon Markets, MSCI
(2) More information on MSCI rating methodology in appendix.
(3) fNRB refers to the fraction of non-renewable biomass used in the project. For cookstove projects, it is linked to the wood used as fuel to operate clean cooking stoves. fNRB is a key parameter for quantifying the number of carbon credits allowed by the project: the higher it is, the more emissions reductions the project generates.
(4) The vintage of a carbon credit corresponds to the year in which the emissions gains were achieved. Example: A credit with a vintage of 2021 means that the emissions reduction/sequestration occurred in 2021.
(5) The Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) framework, developed by NASA in the late 1970s, assesses technological maturity. TRL levels 3 to 6 correspond to an early stage, ranging from proof of concept to initial demonstrations in a relevant environment. It is now used as a standard reference by several institutions, including the EU.